Maybe the analysts at Needham should have been paying closer attention to the presentation. Maybe they were overwhelmed by Steve Jobs and all the razzle-dazzle. Whatever the reason, upon closer scrutiny, the analyst firm has halved its initial sales estimates for Apple’s iPad to two million in fiscal 2010.
The firm says it reassessed its original estimate after reviewing Apple’s presentation, and determined that iPad’s lack of Flash support and lack of multi-tasking capabilities would affect its potential. Needham expects Apple to sell about six million iPads in fiscal 2011.
Other analysts expect Apple to sell anywhere from one million to three million iPads in its first year on the market, and expect the market to be driven (as the iPod Touch and iPhone have been) by third-party software development.
Also this week, Strategy Analytics, a Boston-based research firm, said worldwide netbook shipments grew 79% last year, to a little over 30 million units. The firm says that netbooks benefitted from broad distribution including traditional retail, online, and mobile operators. They didn’t provide any specifics, but predicted further netbook growth this year, driven by chipmakers like Qualcomm and Nvidia, which are developing chips that do more while consuming less space and power.
Will the introduction of the iPad spell the end of netbook growth, or doom smartbooks before they even get off the ground? Probably not. Needham analysts expect more than half of iPad sales, at least initially, to come from existing or potential iPod Touch customers.
You can’t argue with momentum and for now, netbooks have it. With smartbooks and iPads due to hit the market in March, how long they’ll have it is the open question.
Lisa
