It seems as though it only takes a Chrome launch from Google to turn the smartbook from wallflower to main attraction. According to Digitimes, Pegatron has taken an unspecified “high volume of orders” for its smartbooks from several clients. While we would not be surprised to see the combination of a bullet-proof Chrome and an ARM-based platform propel the smartbook into netbook-like levels of volume shipments, a hint of sobriety might be in order here. Smartbooks seem to be on the cusp of the hype boomerang that is all too common with new technology promises. One day the hype is inflated beyond any real expectations, the next day it’s shot full of holes. The truth of a technology trajectory, of course, almost always lies somewhere in between.
For those who call smartbooks late to the party, we would remind skeptics that from the day in early 2009 Qualcomm promoted the new category, it was estimated that smartbook prototypes would begin to be shown around the end of the year, with some volume shipments in the first quarter of 2010. We’re pretty much on schedule. So what’s the problem?
Some smartbooks may end up with an Android or Linux port, and we still can’t rule out a Windows 7 or Windows Mobile future for some smartbook platforms. Nevertheless, most will hinge on the availability of Chrome as a true OS. This is not a simple task of Google trying to challenge Microsoft for a client platform – it also involves Google familiarizing a user base with a cloud-based OS in which document storage is centralized, and few applications (or the data they generate) are stored on the smartbook. We should not underestimate how big a deal this is. Current trends in mobile devices suggest that Google will gain inroads in bringing cloud concepts to the masses, but remember how long Google Docs have existed with only a moderately successful base of users.
Add to this the different wrinkles of processing specialization to be found in Qualcomm’s Snapdragon, Nvidia’s Tegra, Freescale’s i.MX, Marvell’s Armada, and other potential ARM players, and we can see that there are several conceptual hurdles smartbooks still will encounter in the course of 2010. We won’t be dissuaded by rapid booms and busts in smartbooks’ alleged popularity. Pegatron and its competitors may take some initial large orders from retailers, resellers, and wireless operators, but we’ll stick with the belief that slow and steady wins the race.
Loring
